New nomogram predicts prostate cancer recurrence risk

Researchers at Cleveland Clinic and Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, have developed a nomogram capable of predicting the probability of prostate cancer recurrence within 10 years of a patient’s surgical treatment.

“This new tool builds upon a very popular tool we created in 1998,” said Michael Kattan, PhD, of the Cleveland Clinic. “The older prediction model, which predicts the probability of prostate cancer recurrence within 5 years of a patient’s surgery, is commonly used worldwide. This new 10-year prediction model provides greater accuracy and is intended to replace it.”

Dr. Kattan and colleagues tested the nomogram in 1,545 patients, and it accurately predicted prostate cancer recurrence in most patients (J Natl Cancer Inst 2006; 98:715-7). They reported that inclusion of the number of positive and negative biopsy cores enhanced the model’s predictive accuracy.

The nomogram is built into free software available at www.nomograms.org.